ITV breathes sigh of relief as it keeps hold of treasured star, but some pundits say his grip on Saturday nights is weakening
With The X Factor being soundly beaten by Strictly Come Dancing in the ratings and the US version facing the axe, pundits have started to question whether Simon Cowell has finally lost his grip on Saturday nights. But the television mogul emerged still smiling on Friday as he signed a new deal with ITV worth almost £150m, which will keep the show on air for at least the next three years.
Cowell promised to take his two Saturday night talent shows, The X Factor and Britain's Got Talent, "to the next level" after securing their future until the end of 2016.
His delight was matched by the relief of ITV at hanging on to its most treasured talent, less than a week after it lost its valuable live Uefa Champions League football rights in a £900m swoop by BT.
But it remains to be seen whether Cowell will return as a judge on The X Factor, the talent show that made stars out of One Direction but has lost millions of viewers since he quit to launch the US version of the show on Fox. It is now regularly eclipsed by BBC1's rejuvenated Strictly Come Dancing, which has been enjoying record ratings.
Cowell's American adventure, an attempt to take on American Idol, the franchise run by his long-time rival, David Beckham's agent Simon Fuller, has faltered – one recent edition of the show had fewer than 4 million viewers – with its fate expected to be decided in the next few weeks.
Fox's loss though could be ITV's gain if the failure of the show allows Cowell to return to Britain full time to present both his Saturday night shows, which is likely to prompt a resurgence in ratings.
The new deal, signed between ITV and Cowell's Syco Entertainment and co-producer FremantleMedia UK, is worth between £140m and £150m, similar to the last three-year deal in 2010.
It is thought Cowell could earn as much as £50m when extra revenues such as contestants' music sales, released on Cowell's label, are included.
"I am thrilled that we have extended our deal with ITV for Britain's Got Talent and The X Factor," said Cowell. "They have been fantastic partners and we have some exciting new plans to take the shows to the next level."
Cowell, who is expecting his first child next year with his girlfriend, the US socialite Lauren Silverman, has been a fixture of the ITV schedule since he first appeared as a judge on Pop Idol in 2001.
The X Factor first aired three years later and is currently in its 10th series. It has created stars including Leona Lewis, JLS, Alexandra Burke and Olly Murs. However, ratings have been in long-term decline since Cowell last appeared as a judge in 2010. Last year's final was watched by just over 11 million viewers, down from 17 million two years earlier.
A wholesale revamp of the show, including the return of the judge Sharon Osbourne, has failed to halt the slide.
Boyd Hilton, TV editor of Heat magazine, said most of the changes to the show had worked but it suffered from a lack of interesting contestants.
"They don't have any out-and-out wacky contestants – the Jedwards and the Wagners – and I think they are key to the joy of the show," he said.
"It's good for the credibility of the show if you don't have them – and it's still hugely entertaining – but I think possibly the producers underestimate the extent to which viewers like those contestants and the comedy value."
The X Factor and its stablemate, Britain's Got Talent, remain two of ITV's biggest shows despite The X Factor's ratings slide. They are among the few programmes on any channel, along with ITV's soaps, football, I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out of Here! and blockbuster dramas such as Downton Abbey, capable of rating above 10 million viewers.
ITV's director of television, Peter Fincham, said: "Britain's Got Talent and The X Factor are two of the most popular and most talked-about shows on TV. They set the gold standard for entertainment production."
The broadcaster is prepared to spend so much money on Cowell because he is a guaranteed hitmaker in a TV landscape in which new Saturday night successes are scarce. The BBC looked overseas for its latest talent show vehicle, The Voice, as has ITV, which has just bought the Israeli musical talent competition Rising Star. Another Cowell show for ITV, Food Glorious Food, will not be returning, however.
The entertainment PR and branding specialist Mark Borkowski said: "People have been writing the obituaries for The X Factor and it might not have reached the heady heights of late but the figures are still good and it will probably still create the Christmas number one. It's incredibly difficult to find these sort of big entertainment formats that slot right on to the screen. Channel 4 has never replaced Big Brother."
BBC1's Strictly Come Dancing, like its presenter Sir Bruce Forsyth, is wearing well. The current series the most popular in its 10 years on air, last week peaking with more than 11 million viewers, 2 million more than The X Factor.
The dance show will head to Blackpool on Saturday night, the home of ballroom, with the former Coronation Street star Natalie Gumede, singer Sophie Ellis-Bextor and BBC1's Breakfast presenter Susanna Reid among the favourites to win this year's title, along with the Casualty star Patrick Robinson.
Strictly Come Dancing's executive producer Louise Rainbow said the show had benefited from a switch to new studios following the temporary closure of the facilities at BBC Television Centre for refurbishment, enabling a bigger audience and a better atmosphere, and a new choreographer, Jason Gilkison, to hone the couples' dance moves.
"There's a familiarity to Strictly which appeals to viewers as the nights are drawing in," she said. "It's like a warm blanket that you wrap around yourself, cosy and comfortable, feelgood entertainment. It's familiar but it's full of surprise and drama as well."
Rainbow said 85-year-old Forsyth would be one of the first people on the studio floor at the Blackpool Tower where the show's predecessor, Come Dancing, was filmed from 1949 to 1998. She added: "He is going to be in his element."